New Zealand house values fall for seventh straight month

New Zealand property values fell again in October, according to Cotality NZ, marking a seventh straight monthly decline in the national housing market.

The Home Value Index showed a 0.4% monthly fall, leaving national property values 2.3% lower than a year earlier. The median value slipped to NZD $790,987, its lowest level since December 2020, and remains 19.1% below the market peak recorded in January 2022.

The figures suggest the market remains tilted towards buyers as sales volumes ease and listings stay elevated. The usual spring lift in new listings has added to the stock of unsold homes.

Performance across the main urban centres was mixed, but the overall direction remained weak. Auckland recorded a 0.7% monthly decline and Wellington fell 0.9%, while Hamilton, Tauranga and Christchurch were flat and Dunedin edged down 0.1%.

Among the largest centres, Auckland and Wellington posted the steepest annual declines, both down 4.2% over 12 months. By contrast, Christchurch values were still 2.8% higher than a year earlier and Dunedin was up 1.1%.

Kelvin Davidson, Chief Property Economist at Cotality NZ, said buyers remained in a strong negotiating position.

“Agreed sales volumes have been drifting gradually lower throughout 2026 and, with the seasonal spring uplift for new property listings now firmly underway, the stock of unsold dwellings on the market remains elevated. As such, provided that would-be buyers are confident about their own job security and can satisfy the bank too, they remain in a strong bargaining position,” Davidson said.

He said low levels of distressed selling were preventing sharper falls.

“That being said, relatively few vendors are currently 'forced sellers', given that employment has actually remained relatively resilient through the cycle so far. Mortgagee sales also remain very low, at only about 400 in the past year, still well below the post-GFC level of more than 2,600 at its worst.”

“Even so, there's no doubt that the balance of power still lies with buyers in most cases, and hence property values remain subdued in many parts of the country,” Davidson said.

Auckland weak

Across Auckland, every sub-market recorded a monthly fall. Rodney was the most resilient, down 0.1%, while North Shore and Auckland City each dropped 0.8%, Waitākere and Manukau both fell 0.7%, Papakura slipped 0.6% and Franklin declined 0.4%.

Annual changes were also negative across the city, ranging from a 0.8% decline in Rodney to falls of more than 5% in North Shore and Auckland City. The median value across Auckland now stands at NZD $1,006,098.

Davidson linked the city's softer market to weak economic conditions and strong growth in housing supply.

“In the most recent few years, Auckland's property market has been restrained by a subdued economy, especially the services sector, and caution on the part of both businesses and households,” Davidson said.

“Added to that, there's also been the continued growth of new housing supply, especially townhouses, which goes to show what a more favourable planning system can do for housing affordability.”

Capital pressure

Wellington showed a similar pattern, with declines across all parts of the broader region. Kāpiti Coast fell 0.2%, Porirua dropped 0.6%, Wellington City declined 0.8%, while Upper Hutt and Lower Hutt both fell by more than 1% over the month.

The wider Wellington area has a median value of NZD $740,193. Annual falls across the region ranged from 1.9% on Kāpiti Coast to 5.4% in Lower Hutt.

“The latest Stats NZ figures also show that Wellington City's population declined in each of 2025 and 2026, by -0.7% and -0.6% respectively. Obviously that will have dampened property demand,” Davidson said.

Regional split

Outside the main centres, several provincial markets also weakened. Invercargill fell 1.0% in October, Gisborne dropped 0.9%, and Rotorua and Palmerston North each posted declines of at least 0.5%.

Queenstown was a notable exception, rising 0.8% in the month and 2.9% over the year, with a median value of NZD $1,720,244. Invercargill, despite its monthly fall, was the only other main urban market to record annual growth, up 4.3%.

Davidson said some regional centres had been supported by tourism and farming, especially in the South Island, but warned that broader pressures remained.

“However, even these stronger areas still face the same prospect of potentially higher medium-term mortgage rates and also election-related uncertainty in the short term. As such, their housing markets may just remain a little patchy too,” Davidson said.

On the broader outlook, Davidson said the market was likely to remain subdued as political uncertainty and borrowing conditions weighed on sentiment.

“All in all, it remains a favourable time to be a first-home buyer, while other groups such as movers and mortgaged investors still face some challenges,” Davidson said.