Existing owner-occupiers are the main group behind New Zealand's drop in housing sales volumes, according to Cotality. First-home buyers, by contrast, remain active at near-record levels.
The analysis shifts attention from market share to the underlying number of transactions, arguing that percentage shares can hide declines in raw deal volumes when other groups pull back more sharply.
Overall property sales volumes in New Zealand have fallen on an annual basis in every month of 2026 so far, after rising from mid-2023 to late last year. The annual running total of sales dropped to 89,043 in August from 91,973 in December.
The biggest contribution to that decline came from so-called movers, or relocating owner-occupiers. Their annual running total of purchases fell to 23,398 from 25,044 over the same period.
The retreat is modest rather than abrupt, but it marks a clear shift in behaviour among households that would typically trade up, downsize or relocate. The data suggests many are choosing to stay in their current homes instead of entering the market.
Buyer caution
Cotality linked that pattern to economic uncertainty and concern about employment. The restraint does not appear to be driven by a shortage of homes for sale, with listings still abundant across the market.
Kelvin Davidson, Chief Property Economist at Cotality NZ, said movers were the main source of weakness in the market. “The key group behind the overall drop in sales volumes this year has been movers, with many would-be relocating owner-occupiers just choosing to stay put instead,” Davidson said.
The report also points to a weaker labour market as part of the backdrop. With unemployment above average and job security under pressure, households appear less willing to take on the financial and practical risks of moving.
Cotality does not expect a strong return by movers soon, noting that sustained economic growth is not forecast until the second half of next year.
Investors still present
Mortgaged multiple-property owners also reduced activity, though by less than movers. After a small rise in June and July, that group dipped again in August.
Debt-backed investors made almost 20,800 purchases over the past 12 months, while cash multiple-property owners accounted for about 9,400. Both figures have declined recently, but the pull-back has been less pronounced than for owner-occupier movers.
That matters because investors remain an important source of rental housing supply even as conditions have become more difficult. Subdued rental growth, higher operating costs and political uncertainty have weighed on the sector, but the data suggests these buyers have not left the market altogether.
“Debt-backed investors have also reduced their activity a little, but haven't abandoned the market either, despite some challenges,” Davidson said.
First-home demand
By contrast, first-home buyers continue to account for a large share of activity. Their market share reached 29% in August, a new monthly record under Cotality's buyer classification measure.
In raw transaction terms, first-home buyers purchased about 24,950 properties over the past 12 months. That is up sharply from a cyclical low of 14,523 in early 2023.
The latest level does not surpass every previous peak, including periods around 2021 and the years before the global financial crisis, but it still stands out in the current economic backdrop. The figures suggest first-home buyers are not simply gaining share because other groups have retreated, but are also completing a high number of purchases in absolute terms.
Cotality said several factors have supported first-home demand: house prices have eased from earlier highs, mortgage rates are below their peak, buyers can use KiwiSaver savings toward deposits, and banks' low-deposit lending allowances under Reserve Bank loan-to-value ratio rules have provided another path into the market.
The group's strength also raises the question of who is selling to them, since first-home buyers are not also vendors. The analysis suggests supply is coming from new-build homes, investors trimming portfolios and owner-occupiers exiting the market.
“First-home buyers are genuinely a strong presence, by % share or number of deals - even under the current lower income caps for First Home Loans,” Davidson said.